There was no mistaking the sense of excitement as this year’s Gastech opened its doors at London’s Excel this week. New technology has transformed the outlook for the LNG sector – providing unprecedented possibilities for large-scale and expanding ocean shipments, as well as small-scale seaborne projects tailored to meet the energy demands of communities including those on islands and remote areas outside existing grid networks. The potential for shipping is dramatic, a welcome change to the widespread gloom and doom attaching to oversupplied markets in most other key sectors. BG Chief Executive, Sir Frank Chapman, setting the scene at the opening ceremony, described the industry as undergoing a rapid and irreversible revolution, noting that unconventional gas development in the US is heralding the dawn of a new era of low-cost energy which is changing the energy dynamics of the world’s largest economy. “At current production rates,” he declared, “America has over a century’s supply of gas.” Meanwhile, rapid gas sector developments in Australia mean that the country is set to become the world’s largest LNG exporter, thereby driving continued growth in the global LNG market. “An incredible 60m tonnes per annum of projects are under construction there,” he said, “with first unconventional gas-supplied LNG due in 2014.” Unconventional gas is usually sourced from coal, gas sands, shales and gas hydrates, and its main component is methane. However, various other constituents must be removed to produce sales-grade natural gas, the cleanest burning fossil fuel for which world demand is rising steadily. Energy analysts forecast that LNG will play an increasingly important role in the planet’s future energy mix. Sir Frank predicted that LNG’s contribution to total natural gas demand could rise from 10% in 2010 to 14% by 2025. This would mean an absolute increase from 240m tonnes a year to at least 450m tonnes. Other predictions, meanwhile, suggest that world gas demand will grow at a compound rate of 2.5% from now until 2020 and beyond. Global gas reserves are rising significantly as new technology and rising energy prices render hitherto stranded gas economically attractive. Higher stocks are leading to a growing price differential with oil but a range of other factors, besides price, are important catalysts in the...
Read MoreAccording to Braemar Shipping Services – as of 1st May 2011, the double hull VLCC fleet stood at 530 vessels, of which 9.1% were Chinese owned (48 vessels). Of the orderbook of 158 vessels (29.4% of the trading fleet), 19 (12.0%) are Chinese owned. Assuming 100% delivery, the percentage of Chinese owned vessels will increase to 9.7% of the fleet by end 2014. Of the 48 vessels in the Chinese fleet, 30 (62.5%) have been built in the last five years compared to 38.6% of the non-Chinese fleet. Over the next four years, based on the current orderbook the Chinese fleet will expand by 39.6%, whereas the non-Chinese owned portion will enlarge by 28.8%. These figures illustrate the vigour with which Chinese VLCC ownership has grown in conjunction with the country’s increased dependence on oil imports, and the momentum with which it is projected to continue in the next three years. Beyond the bounds of the current orderbook, medium to long term growth remains to be seen; will Chinese owned newbuild orders slow with the 50% import target ticked off (see below), or will Chinese owners continue to invest in order to gain an even bigger slice of the pie? The Chinese government is aiming for 50% of seaborne oil imports to enter the country on Chinese vessels. Braemar Shipping Services plc tanker model output suggests that 84 dedicated VLCCs would have been sufficient to meet 100% Chinese demand in 2010. As of the end of the year, there were 48 Chinese owned VLCCs (including 5 single hulls) suggesting that Chinese vessel capacity is easily sufficient to meet the 50% goal. We anticipate demand to grow to 130 vessels in the next four years, with Chinese vessel supply set to increase to 73. Again these projections indicate that Chinese vessel supply will, in theory, be sufficient to service 50% of seaborne imports. Braemar Shipping Services plc’s analysis of VLCC spot fixture data for vessels suggests that, in 2010, 50.4% of VLCC cargoes were transported on Chinese owned vessels, a 35.4% increase from the 15.0% recorded in 2004. In Q1 2011 however, a 3.4% decrease has been observed with the figure standing at 47%, marginally below the target of 50%....
Read MoreAs global oil prices smashed through $120 this week and are now threatening to constrain world economic growth, few would argue that costlier energy is merely a temporary blip. In the short run, today’s prices have certainly been driven by the natural catastrophe in Japan and political unrest in the Middle East, but all the signs are that radically higher energy prices are here to stay. Of course, rising bunker prices are no new phenomenon and have been a constant headache for owners and operators for years, particularly those who must foot the bunker bill themselves, as compared to others who can pass on fuel bills to charterers. Ships have slowed down significantly, partly it is true as a result of a vast surplus of new tonnage, much of which is still delivering into markets where supply far outweighs demand. But ship operators have also cut speed as a result of the exponential relationship between ship speed and required power, and therefore of course fuel consumption. Rather like permanently higher energy prices, recent reductions in ship speed could be here to stay and, according to one eminent shipping economist, may well have important implications for ship designers, engine builders, owners and operators. Speaking recently at a Lloyd’s Register press dinner in London, Clarkson Research head Martin Stopford painted a very bleak picture of mankind’s insatiable appetite for energy over recent years, and in a shipping context, the huge volumes of fuel required to propel ever-larger ships across the oceans of the world at the speeds to which we have become accustomed. In 1840, Stopford said, half of Europe’s energy was derived from 38m horses and oxen, with the balance coming from wood, water, manpower and wind. In that year, global seaborne trade totalled about 20m tonnes. Today, ships carry more than 8bn tonnes of trade every year and the OECD’s 1.3bn people consume an annual energy equivalent of around six tonnes of oil per capita. A further six billion people each consume a little over one tonne of oil equivalent energy every year but their energy consumption is rising at an unprecedented rate. This partly explains why the world’s VLCC trades have altered so dramatically. Instead of most VLCC...
Read MoreEarly 2011 is not the first time that world geopolitics have dramatically altered shipping’s course. Wars, sanctions and the closure of Suez have, in the past, led to changes in fortune for many of those involved in the ocean transportation business. And, as always in shipping, there have been winners and losers on each occasion. It is certainly too soon to foresee the likely repercussions of current Middle East turmoil, but it is not too soon to draw some conclusions about “energy vulnerability”, long-term oil price trends and the implications for shipping and its service providers. They are far-reaching and could,depending on how events unfold, wreak another round of fundamental changes to the industry. The fact that oil prices have risen from around $80 to $115 or more in amatter of a few weeks comes as an unwelcome reminder that prices are more susceptible to supply uncertainty than any other commodity. Saudi Arabia maybe able to step into the breach and pump more oil to compensate lost production elsewhere – for the moment, primarily in Libya – but the Saudisare not ring-fenced from the contagious people’s revolt that is sweeping theMiddle East. And the pace at which contagious discontent is spreading from North Africa to Bahrain, Oman and, it is believed, Iran has left political analysts open-mouthed. In the short run, rapidly rising prices will provide a valuable catalyst for the lacklustre tanker market, as buoyant Asian economies seek to shoreup energy reserves and raise stock levels. So far, only the Philippines has introduced measures requiring companies to maintain a minimum oil stocklevel – 15 days for individual companies and 30 days for oil refineries. But other Asian nations are expected to follow suit. China is the world’s second largest oil importer after the US and buysmore than half its oil from overseas. Consumption rates are rising exponentially. India currently ranks number five in the global consumptiontable. Yet neither country currently has an adequate strategic petroleum reserve. China is currently in the second phase of building up stocks and by the end of this year, it plans to have 270m barrels of reserves. By 2020, it expects to have three months of imports in reserve – about 500m barrels...
Read MoreBIMCO, the International Chamber of Shipping, INTERCARGO, INTERTANKO and the International Transport Workers’ Federation are outraged that Somali pirates have executed, apparently in cold blood, a seafarer on the merchant ship Beluga Nomination which had been attacked and hijacked by armed pirates on January 22nd in the Indian Ocean, 390 nautical miles north of the Seychelles. Three seafarers were reportedly taken aside for ‘punishment’ after an attempt by the Seychelles coastguard to free the hostage crew resulted in the death of a pirate. We express our deepest sympathy to the seafarers involved and to their anxious families. A spokesman said “The international shipping industry is truly disturbed at reports that pirates have been torturing seafarers physically and mentally, often in the most barbaric ways, including hanging them over the ship’s side by ropes around their ankles with their heads under water and even subjecting them to the horrendous practice of keelhauling. “We wholeheartedly condemn these violent acts and once again strongly urge governments to empower their naval forces to take fast and robust action against pirates, and the vessels under their control, before passing ships are boarded and hijacked. “This latest particularly atrocious action appears to represent a fundamental shift in the behaviour of Somali pirates. The cold-blooded murder of an innocent seafarer means that ship owners and their crews will be re-evaluating their current determination to ensure that this vital trade route remains open – over 40% of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The shipping industry will be looking at all possible options, including alternative routes, which could have a dramatic effect on transport costs and delivery times – piracy is already estimated to cost the global economy between US$7-12bn/year.” At the end of 2010, around 500 seafarers from more than 18 countries are being held hostage by pirates. Piracy clearly affects the world’s largest trade transport industry, but how much is it costing the world? Oceans Beyond Piracy has completed a study on the economic cost of maritime piracy. The project set out to analyse the cost of piracy to three regions: · The Horn of Africa; · Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea; · The Malacca Straits....
Read MoreThe early weeks of 2011 have witnessed a number of natural disasters causing misery and financial hardship for many. Floods in Australia, Brazil and Sri Lanka have forced large communities to flee, with whole townships under water and personal fortunes radically altered in a matter of hours. But natural disasters are not the only ones heralding the early weeks of 2011. For shipping, it is man’s folly in the form of over-ordering that looks likely to make 2011 a very difficult year in a number of key sectors. A flood of bulk carrier deliveries, for example, is undermining the dry market where demand is still relatively buoyant but is being swamped but the sheer volume of new ships joining the fleet. In the container sector, a wave of deliveries has forced lines to postpone rate restoration plans on some of the world’s most important liner trades. For the moment, though, it is the dry bulk market that is hardest hit. An average of more than 30 bulk carriers will be commissioned each week of this year, according to industry statistics, and of these, around seven will be Capesize units. Brokers warn that however healthy the world’s underlying commodity markets may be, absorbing deliveries on this scale and finding suitable employment for unfixed tonnage working spot will present owners and operators with some of the worst headaches anyone can remember. There are likely to be casualties along the way: some owners may well be able to draw down on healthy reserves built up during the dry bulk boom, but others are thought likely to have used much of their spare cash to invest more equity in newbuildings, as banks have imposed tougher lending criteria. Corporate casualties are likely to result in distressed tonnage becoming available at deep discounts to current values and a fraction of the record prices paid when these ships were ordered at the peak. This may offer an interesting opportunity for owners who have accumulated war chests in preparation for circumstances such as these, but it will do nothing to improve the environment for solid owners whose operating economics are based on more expensive vessels requiring higher rates for debt service. Once again, it is likely to...
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