The views of the Publishers do not necessarily correspond to the views of Lambos Maritime Overseas Ltd. Republished by kind permission of: A&A Thorpe, 131a Furtherwick Canvey Island, Essex SS8 7AT Tel: +44 (0) 1268 511300 Fax: +44 (0) 1268 510467 shipaat@aol.com Although experts had predicted that the IMO’s Ballast Water Convention might well have been ratified by the end of the year and would therefore come into force 12 months later, this is now very unlikely. Some experts are even suggesting that it may not enter force until 2014, resulting in a mad scramble as owners try to meet the requirement that existing ships have appropriate installations at their next intermediate or special survey after 2014. Many believe now that the IMO timetable is completely unachievable. Estimates vary widely as to how many installations will ultimately be required. Figures range from 35,000 at the bottom end to as many as 70,000 – a pretty wide margin of error. This is partly because owners of older tonnage could well decide that the investment required to equip their ships to continue trading is just not worth it. Analysts point out that ballast water compliance is only one of a range of new regulatory requirements that could well cripple some owners – burning low-sulphur fuel in Emission Control Areas will transform the operating economics for many ferry operators, for example, whilst scrubber technologies could well prove too expensive to install on many older vessels with a relatively short payback period. Experts in the ballast water field, however, suggest that there is no room for complacency. However much owners may wish the transfer of invasive species in ballast water to be an issue that goes away, the experts insist this will not happen. The IMO’s Convention will inevitably come into force, and sooner rather than later, many believe. So, despite the challenges of operating in markets where many ships are barely breaking even, a proactive approach, rather than a head in the sand, is to be recommended. Those closely involved in fraught negotiations at the IMO concede that the Convention has a range of shortcomings. But they insist that these are being dealt with. Some point out amendments to an existing...
Read MoreThere was no mistaking the sense of excitement as this year’s Gastech opened its doors at London’s Excel this week. New technology has transformed the outlook for the LNG sector – providing unprecedented possibilities for large-scale and expanding ocean shipments, as well as small-scale seaborne projects tailored to meet the energy demands of communities including those on islands and remote areas outside existing grid networks. The potential for shipping is dramatic, a welcome change to the widespread gloom and doom attaching to oversupplied markets in most other key sectors. BG Chief Executive, Sir Frank Chapman, setting the scene at the opening ceremony, described the industry as undergoing a rapid and irreversible revolution, noting that unconventional gas development in the US is heralding the dawn of a new era of low-cost energy which is changing the energy dynamics of the world’s largest economy. “At current production rates,” he declared, “America has over a century’s supply of gas.” Meanwhile, rapid gas sector developments in Australia mean that the country is set to become the world’s largest LNG exporter, thereby driving continued growth in the global LNG market. “An incredible 60m tonnes per annum of projects are under construction there,” he said, “with first unconventional gas-supplied LNG due in 2014.” Unconventional gas is usually sourced from coal, gas sands, shales and gas hydrates, and its main component is methane. However, various other constituents must be removed to produce sales-grade natural gas, the cleanest burning fossil fuel for which world demand is rising steadily. Energy analysts forecast that LNG will play an increasingly important role in the planet’s future energy mix. Sir Frank predicted that LNG’s contribution to total natural gas demand could rise from 10% in 2010 to 14% by 2025. This would mean an absolute increase from 240m tonnes a year to at least 450m tonnes. Other predictions, meanwhile, suggest that world gas demand will grow at a compound rate of 2.5% from now until 2020 and beyond. Global gas reserves are rising significantly as new technology and rising energy prices render hitherto stranded gas economically attractive. Higher stocks are leading to a growing price differential with oil but a range of other factors, besides price, are important catalysts in the...
Read MoreSouth Korea and China may still be slugging it out for top position in today’s tough shipbuilding rankings but experts believe that once the present crisis is over, China will have emerged with a significant lead and could even become the “shipbuilding nation of choice”. Before that happens, however, the country’s shipbuilding sector will have to undergo a painful period of bankruptcies, takeovers, modernisation, consolidation and closures to streamline a business that today comprises more than 4,000 shipbuilding firms. Sean Wang, chief financial officer of Rongsheng Heavy Industries, was addressing delegates at Seatrade’s China Money & Ships earlier this week. He predicted that Chinese shipbuilding is currently poised on the brink of a period of widespread consolidation in which thousands of small builders face likely closure, with only a relatively small number of lucky ones absorbed by larger entities. China overtook South Korea in 2010 and became the world’s number one builder in terms of contracts, orderbook and deliveries, only to lose its position to South Korea again in 2011 when new contracting plunged. Wang outlined what he described as the “concentration gap” between China and South Korea: in China, 60% of delivered ships are built by the top ten shipyards, leaving some 4,000 other facilities scrambling to win small contracts of relatively low value. In contrast, he said, 80% of South Korean-built ships are delivered by the country’s top four yards, but there are only around 70 shipbuilding entities in South Korea in total. Chinese yards win contracts typically worth less than a fifth of those in South Korea, he told the conference, and many Chinese builders remained low in competitiveness, low in concentration, small in scale, dispersed in R&D efforts and rare in resource sharing. However, set against this uncertain backdrop, Wang pointed to a range of positive points which, once the present order famine is finished, will leave surviving Chinese yards in a relatively strong competitive position. Some of these stem from the fact that China has become the world’s principal manufacturing factory. Many companies have transferred industrial production to China; there is a vast pool of manufacturing talent there; and there is also a growing preparedness to adopt new and green technology, a key requirement...
Read MoreThe views of the Publishers do not necessarily correspond to the views of Lambos Maritime Overseas Ltd. Republished by kind permission of: A&A Thorpe, 131a Furtherwick Canvey Island, Essex SS8 7AT Tel: +44 (0) 1268 511300 Fax: +44 (0) 1268 510467 shipaat@aol.com Serious shortcomings in the IMO’s Ballast Water Convention are compounding shipowners’ natural reluctance to invest in new technology which offers them a big round zero in terms of return on capital employed. But experts are warning that uncertainty relating even to type-approved system performance – two such systems have been withdrawn from the market in the last few weeks – is making a ship operator’s choice of strategy even more challenging. For repair yards, the issues could become commercially critical over the next five years. Estimates vary, but sources believe that around 1,000 ballast water treatment systems have been purchased and installed so far, with 1-2,000 ordered but not yet fitted. Depending on whose statistics you choose to believe, that could leave around another 55,000 installations of various shapes and sizes to be made over the next five years or so. For repair facilities aligned with proven system manufacturers offering technology that works, there could be a bonanza ahead. However, a key concern relates to filtration technology: there is only a handful of filter manufacturers supplying this market and their filtration designs are widely deployed as key components in many of the systems currently available. But withdrawal from the market of the two systems so far is understood to relate to non-performing filter technology. Sources highlight a series of other issues which cloud the ballast water picture, even for those ship operators who choose to adopt a proactive approach. Many owners and their representative bodies are hoping that these uncertainties will deter some flag states from signing the Convention which has now reached the required number of signatories but still needs more ships to meet the tonnage requirement. Amongst the issues which are causing sleepless nights are: • Type approval: scientists believe the guidelines, as drafted, are wholly inadequate. The process requires testing in sea water of two salinity levels; tests do not need to be carried out in fresh water where many systems fail to...
Read MoreThe views of the Publishers do not necessarily correspond to the views of Lambos Maritime Overseas Ltd. Republished by kind permission of: A&A Thorpe, 131a Furtherwick Canvey Island, Essex SS8 7AT Tel: +44 (0) 1268 511300 Fax: +44 (0) 1268 510467 shipaat@aol.com The Howe Robinson Containership Index has lost ground steadily for most of the last year. In June 2011, it peaked at 910 but drifted down to a low point of 456 in February. However, perhaps with not much further to fall, it has stabilised since then and, in recent days, has even shown signs of a modest rally, reaching 470 this week. This may give battered container line executives some short-term comfort, but no-one should underestimate the scale of depression in the sector. Lines are currently ready to negotiate annual service contracts and, having fought each other fiercely for market share, are now standing together in a bid to raise rates and ensure that today’s deplorable spot prices do not become the benchmark for the next year’s box rates. Some are more optimistic than others. At a recent industry gathering hosted by the Port of Long Beach, for example, some US shippers predicted stronger cargo movement on the trans-Pacific, with growing volumes of US exports as the peak season gets under way. On the key Asia-Europe trade, however, there is less cause for good cheer. Leading lines have altered their strategies over recent months, switching from a drive for market share at any cost to a realisation that such a path could be the road to ruin. Capacity reduction through slower speeds and adjustments to service schedules are going hand in hand with bids to restore rates to some extent. For now, however, nobody is sure whether rate restoration programmes will stick. Maersk – the world’s largest carrier, now under the stewardship of Søren Skou following Eivind Kolding’s departure for Danske Bank in January – has signalled that profitability is now its prime objective, rather than market share. Having lost more than $600m after tax in 2011, the line is driving a rate restoration programme which, it says, is vital, not least because of rising bunker prices, up more than a third over the last year....
Read MoreThe views of the Publishers do not necessarily correspond to the views of Lambos Maritime Overseas Ltd. Republished by kind permission of: A&A Thorpe, 131a Furtherwick Canvey Island, Essex SS8 7AT Tel: +44 (0) 1268 511300 Fax: +44 (0) 1268 510467 shipaat@aol.com Today’s disastrous shipping markets may be the immediate cause of sleepless nights for owners and operators but not far behind is serious concern over the size of the orderbook. In all of the major sectors, there are still hundreds of ships on order, due for delivery into markets already awash with tonnage as the world fleet is now larger than it has ever been. About one third of the existing bulk carrier fleet remains on builders’ books – close to 2,400 ships; almost 18% of existing tanker tonnage remains on order; and 28% of today’s containership fleet is due to be commissioned over the next couple of years. Owners may be largely to blame for recent ship-contracting madness but had they not had ready access to bank debt, many newbuilding contracts would never have been signed in the first place. It would seem, therefore, that shipping bankers – many of them charged at the time “growing the shipping book” – played a key role in landing the industry where it is today. A recent feature in a Clarkson report by Martin Stopford suggests that the value of new ships delivered in 2011 was $138bn, down slightly on the peak figure in 2010 of $145bn. This compares with a value for new ships in 1996 of $13bn. Based on a debt to equity split of 60:40, this would mean that shipping debt would have risen more than ten-fold over the 15 years between 1996 and 2011 – from around $8bn to $88bn. However, many shipping banks, notably in Europe, have already announced their intention of “de-risking” their shipping portfolios, by which they mean reducing their exposure, where possible, on existing loans, imposing far stricter lending criteria, and in some cases ceasing new business entirely, even for existing creditworthy clients. Clarkson believes that with deliveries running at $130-140bn a year, demand for ship finance is at the peak of a cycle which is inevitably due for a downturn....
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