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The Howe Robinson Containership Index has lost ground steadily for most of the last year. In June 2011, it peaked at 910 but drifted down to a low point of 456 in February. However, perhaps with not much further to fall, it has stabilised since then and, in recent days, has even shown signs of a modest rally, reaching 470 this week. This may give battered container line executives some short-term comfort, but no-one should underestimate the scale of depression in the sector.

Lines are currently ready to negotiate annual service contracts and, having fought each other fiercely for market share, are now standing together in a bid to raise rates and ensure that today’s deplorable spot prices do not become the benchmark for the next year’s box rates. Some are more optimistic than others. At a recent industry gathering hosted by the Port of Long Beach, for example, some US shippers predicted stronger cargo movement on the trans-Pacific, with growing volumes of US exports as the peak season gets under way.

On the key Asia-Europe trade, however, there is less cause for good cheer. Leading lines have altered their strategies over recent months, switching from a drive for market share at any cost to a realisation that such a path could be the road to ruin. Capacity reduction through slower speeds and adjustments to service schedules are going hand in hand with bids to restore rates to some extent. For now, however, nobody is sure whether rate restoration programmes will stick.

Maersk – the world’s largest carrier, now under the stewardship of Søren Skou following Eivind Kolding’s departure for Danske Bank in January – has signalled that profitability is now its prime objective, rather than market share. Having lost more than $600m after tax in 2011, the line is driving a rate restoration programme which, it says, is vital, not least because of rising bunker prices, up more than a third over the last year.

Its decision not to exercise options for ten more Triple-E 18,000 TEU units, limiting its order to 20 such units, is seen as an end to the line’s capacity growth for the moment, as it seeks to cut supply with speed reductions and adjustments to schedules. The line implemented one rate rise on March 1st and is about to push through another one, on April 1st, a move to offset spiralling fuel prices.

Meanwhile, China’s Cosco Holdings notched up shipping’s largest-ever annual loss of $1.7bn in 2011, a dramatic swing from profits of $1.1bn the year before. Much of the loss was down to the company’s dry bulk division but the container division’s revenues fell by more than 10% despite shipment volumes up by 11%. The company’s fleet grew by just under 9% in capacity terms, with more than 20 ships still on order.

Group chairman Capt Wei Jiafu sees some positive signs ahead in the container sector, however. Although the imbalance between supply and demand remains a major issue, he sees more collaboration between carriers as an encouraging development. Examples include deals to swap container slots on board Evergreen and China Shipping vessels. Other carriers are co-operating too, Capt Wei points out, heralding a new era in sector co-operation.

Furthermore, he believes the US is at a watershed, with early signs of recovery and China’s domestic market is showing good potential for demand growth too. However, despite signs of early optimism, Capt Wei is just one of a number of liner executives who do not yet know whether today’s round of rate increases will stick or not.